Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk (NATO Science Series: IV: Earth and Environmental Sciences)

Forecasting and Managing Risk
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Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown in scope and in aspiration to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard collection of proceedings. The lack of a unified reference textbook covering both the science of seasonal to interannual predictions and real-world uses of the forecasts was the main driver for the effort placed into writing an amalgamated introductory book, each chapter of which has been thoroughly peer reviewed. Throughout, our objective has been to present a book accessible to people from diverse disciplines, both scientific and social, interested in this intriguing and fast emerging area.

The fascination of seasonal climate forecasting, for which El Niño forecasting provides the prime basis, derives from its multi-faceted character. Not only does it pose exciting new scientific challenges for the climate community, but it is linked naturally to a great variety of key practical concerns, from security related issues, such as water resource management, food security, and disaster prediction and prevention, to health planning, agriculture management, energy supply, and tourism, to name but a few. Seasonal to interannual climate forecasts are indeed becoming a most important element in certain policy/decision making systems, not least within the contexts of sustainable development and of climate change adaptation. TOC:Part 1. Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Context. 1. Introduction.- 2. Seasonal Forecasts in Decision Making.- Part 2. The Production of Seasonal Climate Forecasts. 3. Overview of Seasonal Forecasting. 4. Ocean-Atmosphere Basis for Seasonal Climate Forecasting. 5. Getting the Coupled Model Ready at the Starting Blocks. 6. Modelling the Atmospheric, Oceanic and Coupled System. 7. Statistical Modelling.- Part 3. Calibration and Assessment of Seasonal Climate Forecasts. 8. From Dynamical Model Predictions to Seasonal Climate Forecasts. 9. An Introduction to Probability Forecasting. 10. How do we know whether Seasonal Climate Forecasts are any good- Part 4. Developing Successful Application Strategies. 11. Communicating Seasonal Forecasts. 12. Building National and Specialised Climate Services. 13. Water, Health and Early Warnings.- Part 5. The Future of Seasonal Climate Forecasting. 14. A Way Forward for Seasonal Climate Services. Acronyms. Glossary of Terms. References. Suggested further Reading.- Index.

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